# El Captain — Business Model & Cost Analysis

> Exchange rate used: **1 USD = 50 EGP**

---

## Pricing Structure

| Tier | Monthly Price | Platform Fee | Target |
|------|--------------|--------------|--------|
| Starter | $20 (١,٠٠٠ ج.م) | 5% of collections | Small academies (50–200 players, 1 branch) |
| Pro | $60 (٣,٠٠٠ ج.م) | 3% of collections | Medium academies (200–1,000 players, up to 5 branches) |
| Enterprise | $100 (٥,٠٠٠ ج.م) | 1% of collections | Large clubs (1,000+ players, unlimited) |

**Annual discount:** 20% (2 months free)

### Tier Comparison

```mermaid
graph LR
    subgraph Starter["Starter - $20/mo (١,٠٠٠ ج.م)"]
        S1[200 players max]
        S2[1 branch]
        S3[5 users]
        S4[5% platform fee]
    end
    subgraph Pro["Pro - $60/mo (٣,٠٠٠ ج.م)"]
        P1[1,000 players]
        P2[5 branches]
        P3[15 users]
        P4[3% platform fee]
    end
    subgraph Enterprise["Enterprise - $100/mo (٥,٠٠٠ ج.م)"]
        E1[Unlimited players]
        E2[Unlimited branches]
        E3[Unlimited users]
        E4[1% platform fee]
    end
```

### Revenue Per Customer (Monthly)

| Academy Size | Monthly Collections | Starter | Pro | Enterprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 players | $1,000 (٥٠,٠٠٠ ج.م) | $70 (٣,٥٠٠ ج.م) | $90 (٤,٥٠٠ ج.م) | $110 (٥,٥٠٠ ج.م) |
| 150 players | $3,000 (١٥٠,٠٠٠ ج.م) | $170 (٨,٥٠٠ ج.م) | $150 (٧,٥٠٠ ج.م) | $130 (٦,٥٠٠ ج.م) |
| 300 players | $6,000 (٣٠٠,٠٠٠ ج.م) | $320 (١٦,٠٠٠ ج.م) | $240 (١٢,٠٠٠ ج.م) | $160 (٨,٠٠٠ ج.م) |
| 500 players | $10,000 (٥٠٠,٠٠٠ ج.م) | $520 (٢٦,٠٠٠ ج.م) | $360 (١٨,٠٠٠ ج.م) | $200 (١٠,٠٠٠ ج.م) |
| 1,000 players | $20,000 (١,٠٠٠,٠٠٠ ج.م) | $1,020 (٥١,٠٠٠ ج.م) | $660 (٣٣,٠٠٠ ج.م) | $300 (١٥,٠٠٠ ج.م) |

### Natural Upgrade Breakpoints

```mermaid
graph LR
    A["Academy < $1,333/mo<br/>(< ٦٦,٦٥٠ ج.م)"] -->|Starter cheapest| B[Starter $20 + 5%]
    C["Academy $1,333–$2,000/mo<br/>(٦٦,٦٥٠–١٠٠,٠٠٠ ج.م)"] -->|Pro cheapest| D[Pro $60 + 3%]
    E["Academy > $2,000/mo<br/>(> ١٠٠,٠٠٠ ج.م)"] -->|Enterprise cheapest| F[Enterprise $100 + 1%]
```

Most real academies (100+ players) self-select into Pro or Enterprise within 1-2 months.

---

## Cost Structure

### Cost Breakdown

```mermaid
pie title Monthly Costs at Launch Phase ($600 / ٣٠,٠٠٠ ج.م)
    "Hosting & Infra" : 110
    "Third-Party Services" : 40
    "Dev Tools" : 150
    "Marketing" : 300
```

### 1. Infrastructure / Hosting

| Item | Provider | Monthly (USD) | Monthly (EGP) | Notes |
|------|----------|:---:|:---:|-------|
| Production Server | AWS EC2 (m5.2xlarge) | $280 | ١٤,٠٠٠ ج.م | 8 vCPU, 30GB RAM, 620GB SSD. Shared across 58 containers |
| El Captain's share | ~30% of server | $84 | ٤,٢٠٠ ج.م | PostgreSQL + Laravel app + queue workers |
| Domain | Namecheap/Route53 | $1.50 | ٧٥ ج.م | $15-18/year |
| SSL | Let's Encrypt (CapRover) | $0 | ٠ | Free wildcard |
| Email (transactional) | Poste.io (self-hosted) | $0 | ٠ | Already running on server |
| Backups (DB) | AWS EBS snapshots | $5 | ٢٥٠ ج.م | Daily, 30-day retention |
| CDN (marketing site) | Vercel | $0–20 | ٠–١,٠٠٠ ج.م | Free tier covers launch traffic |
| **Subtotal** | | **$90–110** | **٤,٥٠٠–٥,٥٠٠ ج.م** | |

### 2. Third-Party Services

| Item | Provider | Monthly (USD) | Monthly (EGP) | Notes |
|------|----------|:---:|:---:|-------|
| SMS Gateway | Twilio / Vonage | $0–50 | ٠–٢,٥٠٠ ج.م | Per-message; can pass cost to academy |
| Payment Gateway | Paymob / Fawry | 2.5% + fees | — | Future feature; not current cost |
| Analytics | Plausible Cloud | $9 | ٤٥٠ ج.م | Privacy-friendly, no cookie banner |
| Error Tracking | Sentry (free tier) | $0 | ٠ | 5K errors/month free |
| Uptime Monitoring | UptimeRobot | $0 | ٠ | Free tier (50 monitors) |
| **Subtotal** | | **$10–60** | **٥٠٠–٣,٠٠٠ ج.م** | |

### 3. Development & Operations

| Item | Monthly (USD) | Monthly (EGP) | Notes |
|------|:---:|:---:|-------|
| Claude Code (AI development) | $100–200 | ٥,٠٠٠–١٠,٠٠٠ ج.م | Primary development tool |
| GitLab (self-hosted) | $0 | ٠ | Already on server |
| Domain email (info@) | $0 | ٠ | Poste.io |
| **Subtotal** | **$100–200** | **٥,٠٠٠–١٠,٠٠٠ ج.م** | |

### 4. Marketing (Launch Phase)

| Channel | Monthly (USD) | Monthly (EGP) | Expected Outcome |
|---------|:---:|:---:|------------------|
| Facebook/Instagram Ads (Egypt) | $200–400 | ١٠,٠٠٠–٢٠,٠٠٠ ج.م | CPL ~$2-5 (١٠٠–٢٥٠ ج.م) in sports niche |
| Google Ads (Arabic keywords) | $100–200 | ٥,٠٠٠–١٠,٠٠٠ ج.م | Low competition for "برنامج إدارة أكاديمية" |
| Content (blog posts, videos) | $0 | ٠ | Self-produced; SEO compounds over time |
| WhatsApp Business | $0 | ٠ | Direct sales channel |
| Sports community groups | $0 | ٠ | Organic outreach in Facebook groups |
| Referral program (1 month free) | Variable | — | Best channel once 5+ happy customers |
| **Subtotal** | **$300–600** | **١٥,٠٠٠–٣٠,٠٠٠ ج.م** | |

### 5. Total Monthly Costs Summary

| Phase | Fixed (USD) | Marketing (USD) | Total (USD) | Total (EGP) |
|-------|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|
| Pre-launch (now) | $200 | $0 | **$200** | **١٠,٠٠٠ ج.م** |
| Launch (months 1-3) | $200 | $400 | **$600** | **٣٠,٠٠٠ ج.م** |
| Growth (months 3-12) | $300 | $600 | **$900** | **٤٥,٠٠٠ ج.م** |
| Scale (12+ months) | $500 | $1,000 | **$1,500** | **٧٥,٠٠٠ ج.م** |

### Cost Scaling Over Time

```mermaid
graph TB
    subgraph "Costs by Phase"
        direction LR
        PL["Pre-launch<br/>$200/mo<br/>١٠K ج.م"] --> L["Launch<br/>$600/mo<br/>٣٠K ج.م"]
        L --> G["Growth<br/>$900/mo<br/>٤٥K ج.م"]
        G --> S["Scale<br/>$1,500/mo<br/>٧٥K ج.م"]
    end
```

---

## Revenue Projections

### Conservative Scenario

| Month | Customers | Mix | Subscriptions (USD) | Platform Fees (USD) | **Total MRR (USD)** | **Total MRR (EGP)** |
|:---:|:---:|---|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|
| 1 | 2 | 2 Starter | $40 | $100 | **$140** | **٧,٠٠٠ ج.م** |
| 3 | 8 | 4S + 3P + 1E | $360 | $650 | **$1,010** | **٥٠,٥٠٠ ج.م** |
| 6 | 20 | 8S + 9P + 3E | $1,000 | $2,200 | **$3,200** | **١٦٠,٠٠٠ ج.م** |
| 12 | 45 | 15S + 22P + 8E | $2,420 | $6,500 | **$8,920** | **٤٤٦,٠٠٠ ج.م** |

*Assumptions: Avg. collections — Starter: $2,000 (١٠٠K ج.م), Pro: $5,000 (٢٥٠K ج.م), Enterprise: $15,000 (٧٥٠K ج.م)*

### MRR Growth Trajectory

```mermaid
xychart-beta
    title "Monthly Recurring Revenue (USD)"
    x-axis ["M1", "M2", "M3", "M4", "M5", "M6", "M7", "M8", "M9", "M10", "M11", "M12"]
    y-axis "MRR ($)" 0 --> 9500
    line [140, 400, 1010, 1500, 2200, 3200, 4100, 5000, 5900, 7000, 8000, 8920]
    line [600, 600, 600, 750, 750, 900, 900, 900, 1000, 1200, 1500, 1500]
```

> Blue = Revenue, Red = Costs. Breakeven at month 3.

### Revenue Composition Over Time

```mermaid
pie title Revenue Split at Month 12
    "Subscription Revenue ($2,420)" : 2420
    "Platform Fees ($6,500)" : 6500
```

### Breakeven Analysis

| Phase | Monthly Costs (USD/EGP) | Breakeven At |
|-------|:---:|---|
| Pre-launch | $200 (١٠,٠٠٠ ج.م) | 3 Pro customers |
| Launch | $600 (٣٠,٠٠٠ ج.م) | 5 Pro + 2 Starter |
| Growth | $900 (٤٥,٠٠٠ ج.م) | 7 Pro + 3 Starter |

**Breakeven at ~5-7 paying customers.** Everything after is profit until you hire or upgrade infrastructure.

### Profit Projections

| Month | Revenue (USD) | Costs (USD) | **Net Profit (USD)** | **Net Profit (EGP)** |
|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|
| 1 | $140 | $600 | -$460 | -٢٣,٠٠٠ ج.م |
| 3 | $1,010 | $600 | +$410 | +٢٠,٥٠٠ ج.م |
| 6 | $3,200 | $900 | +$2,300 | +١١٥,٠٠٠ ج.م |
| 12 | $8,920 | $1,500 | +$7,420 | +٣٧١,٠٠٠ ج.م |

**Annual profit at month 12 run rate: $89,040/year (٤.٤٥ مليون ج.م/سنة)**

### Cumulative Profit/Loss

```mermaid
xychart-beta
    title "Cumulative Net Profit (USD)"
    x-axis ["M1", "M2", "M3", "M4", "M5", "M6", "M7", "M8", "M9", "M10", "M11", "M12"]
    y-axis "Cumulative ($)" -1000 --> 35000
    line [-460, -660, -250, 500, 1950, 4250, 7450, 11550, 16450, 22250, 28750, 36170]
```

---

## Unit Economics

| Metric | USD | EGP |
|--------|:---:|:---:|
| CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost) | $30–100 | ١,٥٠٠–٥,٠٠٠ ج.م |
| LTV @ 12 months, Pro tier | $2,520 | ١٢٦,٠٠٠ ج.م |
| LTV @ 12 months, Starter tier | $1,440 | ٧٢,٠٠٠ ج.م |
| LTV @ 12 months, Enterprise tier | $3,000 | ١٥٠,٠٠٠ ج.م |
| LTV/CAC ratio | 14–84x | — |
| Payback period | < 1 month | — |
| Gross margin | ~90% | — |
| Net margin (at 20 customers) | ~70% | — |

### LTV by Tier

```mermaid
xychart-beta
    title "Customer Lifetime Value - 12 Months (USD)"
    x-axis ["Starter", "Pro", "Enterprise"]
    y-axis "LTV ($)" 0 --> 3500
    bar [1440, 2520, 3000]
```

---

## Customer Journey & Funnel

```mermaid
flowchart TD
    A[Facebook/Google Ad<br/>CPL: $2-5 / ١٠٠-٢٥٠ ج.م] --> B[Marketing Site Visit]
    B --> C{Demo Request?}
    C -->|Yes| D[30-min Demo Call]
    C -->|No| E[Free Trial Signup]
    D --> F[14-Day Free Trial]
    E --> F
    F --> G{Convert?}
    G -->|60% convert| H[Paying Customer]
    G -->|40% churn| I[Nurture Email Sequence]
    I -->|20% return| H
    H --> J{Growth?}
    J -->|Collections > $1,333| K[Self-upgrade to Pro]
    J -->|Collections > $2,000| L[Self-upgrade to Enterprise]
    J -->|Happy| M[Referral → New Lead]
    M --> B
```

---

## Revenue Model Flow

```mermaid
flowchart LR
    subgraph "Revenue Streams"
        SUB[Monthly Subscription<br/>$20-100 / ١,٠٠٠-٥,٠٠٠ ج.م]
        FEE[Platform Fee<br/>1-5% of collections]
        ANN[Annual Prepay<br/>20% discount]
    end
    
    subgraph "How Fee Works"
        COL[Academy collects<br/>from parents] --> INV[Invoice generated<br/>in El Captain]
        INV --> PAY[Payment recorded]
        PAY --> CALC[Fee auto-calculated]
        CALC --> SPLIT{Customer pays?}
        SPLIT -->|Yes| ADD[Added to invoice total]
        SPLIT -->|No| DED[Deducted from academy revenue]
    end
```

---

## Competitive Landscape (Egypt/MENA)

| Competitor | Price (USD) | Price (EGP) | What They Lack |
|-----------|:---:|:---:|----------------|
| Excel/WhatsApp | Free | Free | Everything — no automation, no reports, data loss |
| Jeelapp | ~$50/mo | ~٢,٥٠٠ ج.م | No finance, no POS, no inventory |
| Mawaheb | Custom | Custom | No double-entry, limited customization |
| Generic ERPs (Odoo) | $100+/user | ٥,٠٠٠+/مستخدم | Not sports-specific, complex, not Arabic-first |
| **El Captain** | **$20–100/mo** | **١,٠٠٠–٥,٠٠٠ ج.م** | **Full vertical stack, Arabic-first** |

### Competitive Positioning

```mermaid
quadrantChart
    title Feature Completeness vs Price
    x-axis "Low Price" --> "High Price"
    y-axis "Basic Features" --> "Full Platform"
    quadrant-1 "Sweet Spot"
    quadrant-2 "Overbuilt"
    quadrant-3 "Cheap & Basic"
    quadrant-4 "Expensive & Limited"
    "El Captain": [0.3, 0.9]
    "Jeelapp": [0.4, 0.4]
    "Odoo": [0.8, 0.7]
    "Excel": [0.05, 0.1]
    "Mawaheb": [0.6, 0.5]
```

**Positioning:** The only all-in-one Arabic-first sports ERP with POS, double-entry finance, pricing engine, and attendance — at a price accessible to a 50-player football academy.

---

## Key Metrics to Track

| Metric | Target (Month 6) | Target (Month 12) |
|--------|:---:|:---:|
| MRR | $3,000 (١٥٠K ج.م) | $9,000 (٤٥٠K ج.م) |
| Customers | 20 | 45 |
| Monthly churn | < 5% | < 3% |
| NPS | > 40 | > 50 |
| Fee revenue as % of total | > 60% | > 65% |
| Starter → Pro upgrade rate | > 30% in 3 months | > 40% |
| Average Revenue Per Account | $160 (٨,٠٠٠ ج.م) | $198 (٩,٩٠٠ ج.م) |

---

## Risk Factors & Mitigations

| Risk | Impact | Mitigation |
|------|--------|-----------|
| 5% fee scares small academies | Low Starter conversion | Frame as "transaction processing"; show actual EGP amount not raw % |
| Large academy demands lower % | Revenue pressure | Enterprise at 1% already; offer cap (e.g., max ١٠,٠٠٠ ج.م/month fee) |
| Server shared with 58 apps | Reliability risk | Isolate DB to dedicated RDS when MRR > $2K (١٠٠K ج.م) |
| Single developer dependency | Bus factor = 1 | Comprehensive CLAUDE.md + rules = any AI dev can continue |
| EGP devaluation | USD pricing becomes expensive | Monitor; offer EGP billing option if rate moves past 55 |
| Payment gateway delay | No online payments at launch | Start with cash/bank transfer; add Paymob in month 4 |
| Competitor copies features | Market share loss | Speed of execution + deep sports domain = 12-month moat minimum |

### Risk Matrix

```mermaid
quadrantChart
    title Risk Impact vs Likelihood
    x-axis "Low Likelihood" --> "High Likelihood"
    y-axis "Low Impact" --> "High Impact"
    quadrant-1 "Monitor Closely"
    quadrant-2 "Critical"
    quadrant-3 "Accept"
    quadrant-4 "Mitigate"
    "5% fee scares": [0.5, 0.4]
    "Server reliability": [0.3, 0.7]
    "EGP devaluation": [0.7, 0.5]
    "Competitor copies": [0.4, 0.6]
    "Single dev": [0.2, 0.8]
    "Payment gateway": [0.6, 0.3]
```

---

## 90-Day Launch Plan

### Timeline

```mermaid
gantt
    title 90-Day Launch Plan
    dateFormat YYYY-MM-DD
    axisFormat %b %d
    
    section Week 1-2: Polish
    Fix UI issues           :a1, 2026-07-03, 7d
    Deploy marketing site   :a2, 2026-07-07, 3d
    Setup domain            :a3, 2026-07-08, 2d
    Onboard 2 pilot academies :a4, 2026-07-10, 7d
    
    section Week 3-4: Soft Launch
    Pilot feedback & fixes  :b1, 2026-07-17, 7d
    Record demo video       :b2, 2026-07-20, 3d
    Collect testimonials    :b3, 2026-07-24, 5d
    Setup Paymob billing    :b4, 2026-07-24, 5d
    
    section Month 2: Marketing
    Launch Facebook Ads     :c1, 2026-08-01, 30d
    Sports group outreach   :c2, 2026-08-01, 14d
    WhatsApp outreach (50)  :c3, 2026-08-07, 21d
    Target 5 customers      :milestone, c4, 2026-08-31, 0d
    
    section Month 3: Growth
    Referral program        :d1, 2026-09-01, 30d
    SEO blog posts (4)      :d2, 2026-09-01, 28d
    Sports event attendance :d3, 2026-09-15, 2d
    Target 12 customers     :milestone, d4, 2026-09-30, 0d
```

### Week 1-2: Polish
- [ ] Fix remaining UI issues (est. cost: $0 — AI dev time only)
- [ ] Deploy marketing site to Vercel ($0)
- [ ] Purchase & configure domain (~$15 / ٧٥٠ ج.م)
- [ ] Onboard 2 pilot academies (free, for testimonials)

### Week 3-4: Soft Launch
- [ ] Collect pilot feedback, fix critical issues
- [ ] Record 2-minute demo video in Arabic ($0 — self-produced)
- [ ] Get 2-3 written testimonials from pilots
- [ ] Set up Paymob for subscription billing ($0 setup, 2.5% per transaction)

### Month 2: Marketing Push
- [ ] Launch Facebook Ads: 3 creatives × 2 audiences ($300 / ١٥,٠٠٠ ج.م)
- [ ] Post in 10+ Egyptian sports Facebook groups ($0)
- [ ] WhatsApp outreach to 50 academy owners ($0)
- [ ] Target: **5 paying customers** by end of month

### Month 3: Growth
- [ ] Launch referral program (1 month free for both parties)
- [ ] Publish 4 SEO blog posts targeting Arabic keywords ($0)
- [ ] Attend 1 local sports event/exhibition ($50-100 / ٢,٥٠٠–٥,٠٠٠ ج.م)
- [ ] Target: **12 total paying customers**

### Total Launch Investment (90 days)

| Category | USD | EGP |
|----------|:---:|:---:|
| Infrastructure (3 months) | $270 | ١٣,٥٠٠ ج.م |
| Marketing (3 months) | $1,000 | ٥٠,٠٠٠ ج.م |
| Domain + misc | $20 | ١,٠٠٠ ج.م |
| Dev tools (3 months) | $450 | ٢٢,٥٠٠ ج.م |
| **Total to launch** | **$1,740** | **٨٧,٠٠٠ ج.م** |

**Expected revenue by end of month 3:** $1,010/month (٥٠,٥٠٠ ج.م/month) — investment recovered by month 5.

---

## Financial Summary

```mermaid
flowchart TD
    subgraph "Year 1 Summary"
        INV["Total Investment<br/>$1,740 / ٨٧K ج.م"]
        BE["Breakeven<br/>Month 3 (5-7 customers)"]
        Y1["Year 1 Revenue<br/>~$45K / ٢.٢٥M ج.م"]
        NP["Year 1 Net Profit<br/>~$36K / ١.٨M ج.م"]
        RR["Month 12 Run Rate<br/>$8,920/mo / ٤٤٦K ج.م"]
    end
    INV --> BE --> Y1 --> NP
    Y1 --> RR
```
